Market Report
Current real estate data for every area I serve across Northern and Central Virginia. This report is dated September 24, 2026 and reflects the most recent verified market statistics from FAAR, Bright MLS, Redfin, PWAR, NVAR, Zillow, Movoto, Orchard, Long & Foster, Bellacasa Partners, and local news sources. This week's key themes: mortgage rates moved higher, with the 30-year fixed rate averaging 6.95% the week ending September 17 (the latest published reading); Fairfax County active inventory sits at a 2026 high of about 2,102 homes, up 28% year over year; and Alexandria closed sales fell 28.6% in August even as the median price rose 9.1%. Prices remain firm in most areas (Spotsylvania is up 11.6% year over year and Fredericksburg city is up 9.0%), while King George and the smaller-county markets show cooler, more balanced conditions. September county reports publish in early to mid-October; the figures below are the most recent verified readings as of September 24, 2026. For my full end-of-summer development roundup across all 11 counties, see my companion report: End-of-Summer 2026 Regional Development Report. For a look at the new developments, restaurants, schools, and attractions transforming our region, see: What's New in Fredericksburg and Beyond: A Late Summer 2026 Guide. For the latest verified housing statistics for Spotsylvania County, Stafford County, and the City of Fredericksburg, see my companion analysis: July 2026 Real Estate Market Update: Spotsylvania, Stafford & Fredericksburg.
Inventory Growth Accelerating
Active inventory keeps building across the region: Fairfax County active listings reached a 2026 high of about 2,102 homes in mid-September, up 28% year over year, and Prince William inventory is up more than 30% year over year. Buyers have more choices than in recent years.
Days on Market Lengthening
Homes are sitting longer in several counties: King George median days on market near 89, Orange at about 61 countywide, and about 58% of Fairfax County active houses listed 30 days or more as of early September, per Bellacasa Partners. Strategic pricing and professional marketing matter more than ever for sellers.
Mortgage Rates Crept Higher
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.95% the week ending September 17, 2026, up from 6.76% a week earlier and 6.26% a year ago (Freddie Mac). Affordability pressure is cooling volume in places like Alexandria, where August sales fell while prices still rose.
Current Market Snapshot
Data compiled September 24, 2026 from FAAR, Bright MLS, PWAR, NVAR, Redfin, Zillow, Movoto, Orchard, Long & Foster, Bellacasa Partners, and local sources. This week's notable shifts: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 6.95% (Freddie Mac, week ending September 17, the latest published reading); Fairfax active inventory sits at a 2026 high of about 2,102 homes; Alexandria closed sales fell 28.6% in August while the median price rose 9.1%; King George's 12-month rolling median near $500,000 versus Redfin's August reading down 4.8%; Spotsylvania median up 11.6% year over year.
| Area | Median Price | YoY Change | Avg Days on Market | Inventory |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredericksburg | ~$480K | +9.0% | ~49 days | Compact city market |
| Stafford | ~$510K | ~Flat | 21-54 days | ~188-380 active (Movoto/Orchard) |
| Spotsylvania | $508.6K | +11.6% | 37-48 days | ~160-197 active; ~272 pending |
| Orange | ~$417K | +0.2% | ~58 days | ~253 active (Aug); ~67 pending |
| Fairfax | ~$813K | +3.4% | ~12-19 days | ~2,102 active (2026 high) |
| Arlington | ~$818K | +2.3% | ~34 days | 444 active; 237 pending (L&F) |
| Alexandria | $752.5K | +9.1% | ~40 days | 390 active (Aug); 130 closings |
| King George | ~$500K | Mixed | ~41-89 days | ~57 pending; ~27 new (Redfin) |
| Caroline | ~$365-375K (Q1) | Mixed | ~33-43 days | Lean; small sales base |
| Culpeper | ~$600K (June) | Mixed | 36-92 days | ~424 active (June) |
| Prince William | ~$599K (May) | +3.4% | ~18 days | ~935 active (June); ~668 pending |
Fredericksburg
+9.0%Fredericksburg city's median sold price is about $480,000 over the three months ending August 2026, up 9.0% year over year (Redfin), with Resideline's six-month analysis across 184 closings at $477,500 and Zillow's typical home value at $474,797. Median days on market run about 49, up from 39 a year earlier, though homes still go under contract in about 22 days, and FAAR's August 2026 regional report was released September 12 with September figures due in October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Fredericksburg.
Source: Redfin August 2026, Resideline August 2026, Zillow 2026
Stafford
~FlatStafford County pricing is roughly flat year over year in the most recent readings. Redfin's county median sale price is $511,000 (down 2.7% year over year), while Orchard's rolling 30-day median is near $492,500, up about 5.8%, with about 380 homes for sale and roughly 21 median days on market; Movoto counts about 188 active listings at a $559,995 median list price with 28 days on market. Zillow's average home value is $547,004, up 0.5%, with homes going under contract in about 11 days, and Redfin shows median days on market in the mid-50s, so the true window sits in the 21 to 54 day range depending on the source. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Stafford County.
Source: Redfin 2026, Orchard September 2026, Movoto September 2026, Zillow 2026
Spotsylvania
+11.6%Spotsylvania leads the region on price appreciation. Redfin's most recent county median sale price is $508,565 (June 2026), up 11.6% year over year, with FAAR's Q1 2026 median at $475,000, and Long & Foster reported sales closing near 102% of list price in June. Median days on market run roughly 37 (FAAR, January 2026) to 48 (Redfin, October 2025), and active listings sit in the 160 to 197 range depending on the source, up about 42% year over year per FAAR, with roughly 272 homes pending (Redfin). Movoto's September listing median near $622,000 is asking price, not closed sales. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Spotsylvania County.
Source: Redfin June 2026, FAAR 2026, Movoto September 2026, Long & Foster
Orange
+0.2%Orange County's median sold price is about $417,000 over the three months ending May 2026, up 0.2% year over year (Redfin), with Zillow's typical home value at $390,026, up 2.1%. An August 2026 county-level update (Sean Jones Homes, local MLS data) counted 253 active listings, up from 220 in June and July, with 67 homes under contract and about 58 average days to go under contract in August. Sub-area reads put Locust Grove's median sold price near $400,000 across 263 tracked closings (Resideline, early September 2026) and Lake of the Woods near $412,000 (Neighborhoods.com). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Orange County.
Source: Redfin May 2026, Zillow 2026, Sean Jones Homes August 2026, Resideline 2026
Fairfax
+3.4%Fairfax County's median sold price is about $813,000 over the trailing three months, up 3.4% year over year (Redfin), while NVAR's August 2026 Northern Virginia median (Fairfax and Arlington counties plus nearby cities) is $765,000, up 2.0%, and Zillow's average home value is $760,599 with homes going under contract in about 12 days. Inventory keeps building: active listings reached 2,102 in the week ending September 15, 2026, a 2026 high and about 28% above the same week in 2025 (Bellacasa Partners), with roughly 1,601 homes pending (Redfin). As of September 9, about 58% of active houses had been listed 30 days or more, so current pricing and broad marketing matter more. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Fairfax County.
Source: NVAR August 2026, Redfin 2026, Zillow August 2026, Bellacasa Partners September 2026
Arlington
+2.3%Arlington County's median sold price is about $818,000 over the trailing three months, up 2.3% year over year (Redfin), with the city-level median near $835,000 for the three months ending July 2026, up 7.7%. Long & Foster's July 16, 2026 snapshot counted 444 homes for sale and 237 pending, and median days on market run roughly 34 days (Redfin, three months ending July 2026) with sale-to-list ratios hovering near 100%, so well-priced homes still command nearly full asking. Zillow's average home value is down about 0.5% year over year, and inventory has improved from pandemic-era lows, giving buyers more options in a still-competitive county. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Arlington.
Source: Redfin 2026, Long & Foster July 2026, Zillow 2026
Alexandria
+9.1%Alexandria's August 2026 closed-sales report (NVAR/MarketStats by ShowingTime) put the median sale price at $752,500, up 9.1% year over year, with the average at $847,020, up 12.2%. Just 130 homes closed in August, down 28.6% year over year as higher mortgage rates slowed buyer activity, while active listings rose to 390 at month-end, up from 318 a year earlier, with 149 new listings. Redfin's city page shows a median near $736,000 over three months, up 11.2% year over year, with median days on market around 40 and a sale-to-list ratio near 99.9%. Detached single-family homes averaged about $1.5 million, up 14.7%, on a small number of sales. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Alexandria.
Source: NVAR August 2026 via Alexandria Brief/ALXnow, Redfin August 2026
King George
MixedKing George County's rolling 12-month analysis through July 2026 puts the median sold price at about $500,000 with homes averaging 41 days on market (smover), while FAAR's March 2026 county report showed a $499,275 median, up 11.0% year over year, with 27 median days on market and 29 new pending sales. Redfin's August 2026 reading came in near $485,376, down 4.8% year over year, with median days on market near 89, and its pending-listings page counted about 57 homes under contract at scrape time. Zillow's typical home value is $472,297, up 2.4%, with about 14 days to pending, and Redfin shows about 27 new listings at a median list price near $510,000. Demand around Naval Support Facility Dahlgren keeps interest alive while prices adjust. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in King George County.
Source: smover 2026, FAAR March 2026, Redfin August 2026, Zillow 2026
Caroline
MixedFAAR's 2026 county reports put Caroline County's year-to-date median sold price at $365,000 through March with a 43-day median days on market (January to March), and the most recent county month (March) came in at $375,000 with 33 median days on market across 29 closed sales. Redfin's May 2026 reading was higher at $422,184, up 16.3% year over year, and a December 2025 snapshot showed $340,000, down 10.5%. The county's small sales base swings month to month, so trend lines matter more than any single figure, and its lean inventory plus I-95 corridor access keep it an affordability play. FAAR's county-level reports are the best source as new monthly figures are released. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Caroline County.
Source: FAAR Q1 2026, Redfin May 2026 and December 2025
Culpeper
MixedCulpeper County's figures vary widely by source and month. Realtor.com's June 2026 county data put the median sold price near $600,000 with about 424 active listings, a 36-day median days on market, and a median list price about $612,900. Redfin data through May 2026 showed a median sold price near $573,000, up 17% year over year, with a 99.5% median sale-to-list ratio, while its October 2025 reading was $463,450, down 8.2%. Movoto reported 92 median days on market for August 2026, so pricing discipline matters. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Culpeper County.
Source: Realtor.com June 2026, Redfin 2025-2026, Sean Jones Homes, Movoto August 2026
Prince William
+3.4%Prince William County's median sold price is about $599,450 as of May 2026, up 3.4% year over year, with the year-to-date median at $580,000, up 2.5% (PWAR). Homes are selling in about 18 average days at roughly 99.4% of original list price, and Redfin tallies about 668 homes pending. PWAR's June 2026 report shows active listings at 935 at month-end, up about 21% year over year and a five-year June high, with 663 closed sales in June, up 18.2%. Inventory continues to grow, so buyers have real selection in the corridor while well-priced homes still move quickly; Redfin's February reading showed a $555,000 median with longer days on market. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Prince William County.
Source: PWAR June 2026, Redfin 2026
Market data compiled from publicly available sources including FAAR, Bright MLS, PWAR, NVAR, Redfin, Zillow, Movoto, Long & Foster, Bellacasa Partners, and local news outlets. Actual values may vary by neighborhood and property type. Contact me for a personalized market analysis. Explore neighborhoods →
Area-by-Area Breakdown
Each area snapshot is dated September 24, 2026 and reflects the most recent verified data from the sources listed. Fresh data is researched and updated every Monday.
Fredericksburg
Fredericksburg city's median sold price is about $480,000 over the three months ending August 2026, up 9.0% year over year (Redfin), with Resideline's six-month analysis across 184 closings at $477,500 and Zillow's typical home value at $474,797. Median days on market run about 49, up from 39 a year earlier, though homes still go under contract in about 22 days, and FAAR's August 2026 regional report was released September 12 with September figures due in October. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Fredericksburg.
Source: Redfin August 2026, Resideline August 2026, Zillow 2026
Stafford
Stafford County pricing is roughly flat year over year in the most recent readings. Redfin's county median sale price is $511,000 (down 2.7% year over year), while Orchard's rolling 30-day median is near $492,500, up about 5.8%, with about 380 homes for sale and roughly 21 median days on market; Movoto counts about 188 active listings at a $559,995 median list price with 28 days on market. Zillow's average home value is $547,004, up 0.5%, with homes going under contract in about 11 days, and Redfin shows median days on market in the mid-50s, so the true window sits in the 21 to 54 day range depending on the source. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Stafford County.
Source: Redfin 2026, Orchard September 2026, Movoto September 2026, Zillow 2026
Spotsylvania
Spotsylvania leads the region on price appreciation. Redfin's most recent county median sale price is $508,565 (June 2026), up 11.6% year over year, with FAAR's Q1 2026 median at $475,000, and Long & Foster reported sales closing near 102% of list price in June. Median days on market run roughly 37 (FAAR, January 2026) to 48 (Redfin, October 2025), and active listings sit in the 160 to 197 range depending on the source, up about 42% year over year per FAAR, with roughly 272 homes pending (Redfin). Movoto's September listing median near $622,000 is asking price, not closed sales. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Spotsylvania County.
Source: Redfin June 2026, FAAR 2026, Movoto September 2026, Long & Foster
Orange
Orange County's median sold price is about $417,000 over the three months ending May 2026, up 0.2% year over year (Redfin), with Zillow's typical home value at $390,026, up 2.1%. An August 2026 county-level update (Sean Jones Homes, local MLS data) counted 253 active listings, up from 220 in June and July, with 67 homes under contract and about 58 average days to go under contract in August. Sub-area reads put Locust Grove's median sold price near $400,000 across 263 tracked closings (Resideline, early September 2026) and Lake of the Woods near $412,000 (Neighborhoods.com). Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Orange County.
Source: Redfin May 2026, Zillow 2026, Sean Jones Homes August 2026, Resideline 2026
Fairfax
Fairfax County's median sold price is about $813,000 over the trailing three months, up 3.4% year over year (Redfin), while NVAR's August 2026 Northern Virginia median (Fairfax and Arlington counties plus nearby cities) is $765,000, up 2.0%, and Zillow's average home value is $760,599 with homes going under contract in about 12 days. Inventory keeps building: active listings reached 2,102 in the week ending September 15, 2026, a 2026 high and about 28% above the same week in 2025 (Bellacasa Partners), with roughly 1,601 homes pending (Redfin). As of September 9, about 58% of active houses had been listed 30 days or more, so current pricing and broad marketing matter more. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Fairfax County.
Source: NVAR August 2026, Redfin 2026, Zillow August 2026, Bellacasa Partners September 2026
Arlington
Arlington County's median sold price is about $818,000 over the trailing three months, up 2.3% year over year (Redfin), with the city-level median near $835,000 for the three months ending July 2026, up 7.7%. Long & Foster's July 16, 2026 snapshot counted 444 homes for sale and 237 pending, and median days on market run roughly 34 days (Redfin, three months ending July 2026) with sale-to-list ratios hovering near 100%, so well-priced homes still command nearly full asking. Zillow's average home value is down about 0.5% year over year, and inventory has improved from pandemic-era lows, giving buyers more options in a still-competitive county. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Arlington.
Source: Redfin 2026, Long & Foster July 2026, Zillow 2026
Alexandria
Alexandria's August 2026 closed-sales report (NVAR/MarketStats by ShowingTime) put the median sale price at $752,500, up 9.1% year over year, with the average at $847,020, up 12.2%. Just 130 homes closed in August, down 28.6% year over year as higher mortgage rates slowed buyer activity, while active listings rose to 390 at month-end, up from 318 a year earlier, with 149 new listings. Redfin's city page shows a median near $736,000 over three months, up 11.2% year over year, with median days on market around 40 and a sale-to-list ratio near 99.9%. Detached single-family homes averaged about $1.5 million, up 14.7%, on a small number of sales. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Alexandria.
Source: NVAR August 2026 via Alexandria Brief/ALXnow, Redfin August 2026
King George
King George County's rolling 12-month analysis through July 2026 puts the median sold price at about $500,000 with homes averaging 41 days on market (smover), while FAAR's March 2026 county report showed a $499,275 median, up 11.0% year over year, with 27 median days on market and 29 new pending sales. Redfin's August 2026 reading came in near $485,376, down 4.8% year over year, with median days on market near 89, and its pending-listings page counted about 57 homes under contract at scrape time. Zillow's typical home value is $472,297, up 2.4%, with about 14 days to pending, and Redfin shows about 27 new listings at a median list price near $510,000. Demand around Naval Support Facility Dahlgren keeps interest alive while prices adjust. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in King George County.
Source: smover 2026, FAAR March 2026, Redfin August 2026, Zillow 2026
Caroline
FAAR's 2026 county reports put Caroline County's year-to-date median sold price at $365,000 through March with a 43-day median days on market (January to March), and the most recent county month (March) came in at $375,000 with 33 median days on market across 29 closed sales. Redfin's May 2026 reading was higher at $422,184, up 16.3% year over year, and a December 2025 snapshot showed $340,000, down 10.5%. The county's small sales base swings month to month, so trend lines matter more than any single figure, and its lean inventory plus I-95 corridor access keep it an affordability play. FAAR's county-level reports are the best source as new monthly figures are released. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Caroline County.
Source: FAAR Q1 2026, Redfin May 2026 and December 2025
Culpeper
Culpeper County's figures vary widely by source and month. Realtor.com's June 2026 county data put the median sold price near $600,000 with about 424 active listings, a 36-day median days on market, and a median list price about $612,900. Redfin data through May 2026 showed a median sold price near $573,000, up 17% year over year, with a 99.5% median sale-to-list ratio, while its October 2025 reading was $463,450, down 8.2%. Movoto reported 92 median days on market for August 2026, so pricing discipline matters. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Culpeper County.
Source: Realtor.com June 2026, Redfin 2025-2026, Sean Jones Homes, Movoto August 2026
Prince William
Prince William County's median sold price is about $599,450 as of May 2026, up 3.4% year over year, with the year-to-date median at $580,000, up 2.5% (PWAR). Homes are selling in about 18 average days at roughly 99.4% of original list price, and Redfin tallies about 668 homes pending. PWAR's June 2026 report shows active listings at 935 at month-end, up about 21% year over year and a five-year June high, with 663 closed sales in June, up 18.2%. Inventory continues to grow, so buyers have real selection in the corridor while well-priced homes still move quickly; Redfin's February reading showed a $555,000 median with longer days on market. Call (540) 840-1133 or use the contact form for a personalized consultation on buying or selling in Prince William County.
Source: PWAR June 2026, Redfin 2026
For Buyers
This is one of the most balanced markets we have seen in years across most of my service areas. Fairfax County active listings reached a 2026 high of about 2,102 homes in mid-September, up 28% year over year, Prince William inventory is up more than 30% year over year with roughly 668 homes pending, and Orange County median days on market have lengthened to about 61. King George's median sale price is down about 4.8% to 7.7% year over year, Caroline swings month to month on a small base, and Culpeper figures vary widely by source, giving price-conscious buyers real leverage in those areas. Higher mortgage rates, with the 30-year fixed rate at 6.95%, cooled Alexandria volume in August even as its median price rose 9.1%. Spotsylvania is up 11.6% year over year and Fredericksburg city is up 9.0%, so the high-demand areas remain firm. Pre-approval and local market knowledge are your strongest advantages: well-priced, well-located homes still attract offers, but the extreme competition of 2021 through 2023 has eased. Reach out for a personalized search strategy tailored to your target county and price range.
For Sellers
The market has shifted toward balance, and strategic pricing from day one is critical. Days on market are trending up in several counties: King George runs near 89 median days, Orange about 61 countywide, and about 58% of Fairfax County's active houses had been listed 30 days or more as of early September. Mortgage rates at 6.95% are weighing on buyer budgets, yet well-priced homes still sell: Prince William averages about 18 days on market, Spotsylvania prices are up 11.6% year over year, and Alexandria homes close at about 99.9% of list. Homes priced correctly still sell, but overpriced listings sit, and in King George, Culpeper, and Caroline the market rewards sellers who rely on current comps. My 100-point Marketing Plan and AI-driven buyer targeting are designed to reach the right buyers quickly in this kind of transitioning market. Let's discuss a strategy tailored to your home and timeline.
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What the Numbers Mean for You
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